This is Lex on the 24th September:
“But the frightening reality is that bank lending is contracting faster than the Fed is buying assets from the non-bank private sector, as part of its efforts to lower yields and revive failed markets. No matter how much the Fed seems to do, banks are not extending loans. US consumer credit, for example, fell at an annualised 10 per cent in July. Total debt outstanding is where it was a year ago.
Some wonder about the wisdom of attempting to mend the wreckage of a debt bubble with yet more debt. Even so, the economic consequences of shrivelling broad money do not bear thinking about – the long-term growth rate of M2, for example, is normally about 10 per cent per year. So forget about inflation. Goldman Sachs notes that inflation has the highest correlation to broader measures of money supply. Best ask for that pay rise now.”
Is Lex saying deflation is coming? I think so, but how can anyone know?
What I know is that there will be deflation, inflation or something in between, and that we will make heroes of the lucky pundits, economists, or punters who guessed right.
Bun rating: 99% bun from the harvest of 2012, if there is one.